ATRI updates its Crash Predictor Model
Posted August 2, 2018
The likelihood of a future crash can be quantified statistically using a truck driver’s behaviors, according to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) Crash Predictor Model.
ATRI recently released the third edition of its analysis. The study:
- Uses two years’ worth of data from over 435,000 U.S. truck drivers, and
- Identifies nearly a dozen behaviors that increase the likelihood of a future truck crash by more than 50 percent.
Age and gender were included as variables to consider when examining crash probability.
In addition, a related topic — crash costs — was included in this latest report. ATRI examined average crash costs across six distinct crash types and severity for the trucking industry.
Highlights from ATRI’s Crash Predictor Model Update include:
- Top two behaviors for predicting future crash involvement. Reckless driving and failure to yield right of way each increased the likelihood of a future crash more than 100 percent.
- Prior crash involvement. A commercial driver who was in a previous crash is more likely to have a future accident. ATRI reports a prior accident increases the likelihood of a future crash by 74 percent.
- Female commercial drivers. ATRI’s study found women truck drivers were safer than male counterparts in every statistically significant safety behavior. Men were 20 percent more likely to be involved in a crash than women.
- Emerging trends. All three ATRI Crash Predictor Models (2005, 2011, and 2018) have shown the following convictions increase the likelihood of a future crash:
- Improper lane/location,
- Reckless/careless/inattentive/negligent driving, and
- Improper or erratic lane change.
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