ATRI updates its Crash Predictor Model

Study examines truck driving behaviors

Posted August 2, 2018

The likelihood of a future crash can be quantified statistically using a truck driver’s behaviors, according to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) Crash Predictor Model.

ATRI recently released the third edition of its analysis. The study:

  • Uses two years’ worth of data from over 435,000 U.S. truck drivers, and
  • Identifies nearly a dozen behaviors that increase the likelihood of a future truck crash by more than 50 percent.

Age and gender were included as variables to consider when examining crash probability.

In addition, a related topic — crash costs — was included in this latest report. ATRI examined average crash costs across six distinct crash types and severity for the trucking industry.

Key findings

Highlights from ATRI’s Crash Predictor Model Update include:

  • Top two behaviors for predicting future crash involvement. Reckless driving and failure to yield right of way each increased the likelihood of a future crash more than 100 percent.
  • Prior crash involvement. A commercial driver who was in a previous crash is more likely to have a future accident. ATRI reports a prior accident increases the likelihood of a future crash by 74 percent.
  • Female commercial drivers. ATRI’s study found women truck drivers were safer than male counterparts in every statistically significant safety behavior. Men were 20 percent more likely to be involved in a crash than women.
  • Emerging trends. All three ATRI Crash Predictor Models (2005, 2011, and 2018) have shown the following convictions increase the likelihood of a future crash:
    • Improper lane/location,
    • Reckless/careless/inattentive/negligent driving, and
    • Improper or erratic lane change.

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