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ATRI releases updated crash predictor behaviors

Driver behavior can increase the likelihood of a future crash by up to 141 percent

Posted October 14, 2022

The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has released its updated Crash Predictor report and once again has concluded that driver behaviors are a key predictor of future crashes.

The institute’s most recent research identifies the top five driver behaviors that predict the increased likelihood of that driver being involved in a crash:

  1. A Failure to Yield Right-of-Way violation (141 percent)
  2. A Failure to Use / Improper Signal conviction (116 percent)
  3. A past crash (113 percent)
  4. A Reckless Driving violation (104 percent)
  5. A Failure to Obey Traffic Sign conviction (85 percent)

ATRI released previous Crash Predictor Models in 2005, 2011, and 2018. When comparing results across all four years, ATRI found that the following are the most “stable” predictors of a future crash:

  1. Reckless Driving violation (114 percent)
  2. Failure to Use / Improper Signal conviction (89 percent)
  3. Past crash (88 percent)
  4. Failure to Yield Right-of-Way violation (85 percent)
  5. Improper or Erratic Lane Changes conviction (79 percent)

In addition, ATRI found that:

  • Drivers with any out-of-service violation were 29 percent more likely than their peers to be involved in a future crash;
  • Drivers with a moving violation were 43 percent more likely to be involved in a future crash; and
  • Any conviction increased future crash likelihood by 46 percent.

This most recent analysis looked at a sample of 583,805 drivers in the United States who hold a Class A, B, or C commercial driver’s license (CDL).

This article was written by Jen Loomis of J. J. Keller & Associates, Inc.

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